No Data, No Problem: What’s Moving Markets This Week
We’re starting the week with a mixed market — the Dow Jones Industrial Average is slightly lower, while the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are both higher. This comes after a solid performance last week, where most major indices gained just over 1%.
A Quiet Month for Data — Thanks to the Government Shutdown
Normally, October is packed with key economic reports — jobs data, inflation numbers, and more. But with the government shutdown, we won’t be getting any of that information until things reopen.
While that doesn’t affect most of us directly, it does matter to the Federal Reserve, which relies on that data to guide decisions on interest rates. When the Fed doesn’t have clarity, it tends to move cautiously — and that’s exactly what we expect.
Fed Speeches Take Center Stage
This week, several Fed governors are speaking publicly, and markets will be listening closely for any hints about the direction of rates.
After the last Fed meeting, opinions were split:
Some officials were dovish, favoring rate cuts.
Others were hawkish, urging patience.
Our view? The Fed will likely continue easing rates slowly, preferring to stay cautious until they have more data in hand.
Earnings Season Could Be the Next Catalyst
The third-quarter earnings season officially begins this month, and expectations are generally positive. Strong results could give markets the boost they need for a fourth-quarter rally.
Historically, the fourth quarter has been kind to investors — markets finish higher about 81% of the time. While that’s not a guarantee, it’s a trend worth noting as we head toward year-end.
Personal Note: Padres Out, Garden In
On a lighter note — as many of you saw — the Padres are out of the playoffs, which freed up my weekend for a little gardening. I rototilled the yard and dug some irrigation trenches. If the markets do well through the end of the year, that’ll make up for the Padres’ early exit!
Looking Ahead
As we enter the final stretch of 2025, staying proactive is key.
If you’d like to review your portfolio and make sure you’re positioned for a potentially strong fourth quarter, let’s talk.
📞 John Heil – 760-310-1029
📧 john@marketcapitalmanagement.com