Mixed Start to the Week
We kick off Monday on a slightly softer note. The Dow and S&P 500 are both down a touch — still just shy of their all-time highs — while the NASDAQ manages to edge upward. Interest rates are basically flat to slightly lower, so no big moves there… yet.
Last week ended on a positive note, but this week? It’s packed with data and events that could shift the market mood quickly.
This Week’s Key Economic Reports
Tuesday – CPI (Consumer Price Index)
Analysts expect core CPI to rise 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year.Any surprise — higher or lower — could spark a market reaction.
Thursday – PPI (Producer Price Index)
This could be even more important than CPI, as it shows inflation pressure before it hits consumers. Tariffs and supply chain costs will be key to watch.Friday – The Data Pile-Up
Retail Sales
Import Price Index
Capacity Utilization
Consumer Sentiment
All Week – Fed Speak
Several Fed governors will share their views on the economy and monetary policy. Traders will be listening closely for hints about the September interest rate decision.
The Fed Question: Will They Cut in September?
Most analysts expect a rate cut next month. But for now, we’re in the summer doldrums — historically a slow, sideways period for markets.
A quick seasonal note:
September is the worst month historically in terms of market direction — about a 50/50 shot of being negative.
October gets the “worst month” title for total returns, but that’s because of major crashes that happened in history.
Global Spotlight: Trump–Putin Meeting
On Friday, President Trump meets with Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential Russia–Ukraine ceasefire.
Nobody’s holding their breath for a breakthrough, but… if progress is made, we could see oil prices drop — which is anti-inflationary and potentially good for stocks.
What’s the Play?
We’re likely to stay in a range until:
The data confirms inflation’s direction.
The Fed gives clarity on rates.
Global events settle — or flare up.
Now’s the time to review your portfolio, look for opportunities, and prepare for the final stretch of the year.
On a Local Note…
The Padres have a huge two weeks ahead — Giants, then Dodgers, then Giants, then Dodgers again. This could decide the NL West.
And yes… Go Padres! ⚾